Best Documentary Feature Predictions for the 2027 Oscars

Diversity The Awards Circuit section is the home of all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: Official predictions for the Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards, curated by Diversity Awards Editor-in-Chief Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the races and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual candidate. As other formal (and informal) surveys suggest, contests are fluid and subject to change in response to noise and events. Forecasts are updated every Thursday.

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Best Documentary Feature Predictions Commentary (Updated: November 2, 2026): Will the documentary branch of the academy see it all?

“You Can See Everything,” Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s documentary that sparked an explosive undercover show in Telluride, follows Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes in the 34 days before she reports to prison — and continues long after. After a close race, A24’s Elizabeth Holmes documentary You Can See Everything beat out DC Comics adaptation Clayface at the domestic box office.

The nonfiction sensation boasts record scores of 99 on Metacritic, 98% on Rotten Tomatoes, 4.7 out of 5 on Letterboxd, and 9.4 on IMDb. If this IMDb score holds true, it will surpass the longtime No. 1 film, The Shawshank Redemption (1994), as the highest-rated film of all time.

However, history has shown that popularity rarely does a documentary any favors. The omission of “Hoop Dreams” in 1994 prompted the Academy to rethink its Oscar voting mechanism before establishing a documentary branch in 2001. Morgan Neville’s portrait of Mr. Rogers in Won’t Be My Neighbor? It grossed more than $22 million in 2018 and won the PGA and Critics Choice Documentary Awards, but failed to earn an Oscar nomination. Neville, who won for “20 Feet From Star” (2013), hasn’t been nominated since, keeping the theory alive on the awards circuit: win once and Branch thinks you care. Laura Poitras, who won for “Citizenfour” and later received another nomination for “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” is a rare exception.

“There’s a popularity contest element to it now that makes me angry,” says another voter. “I don’t care how many people I know on film or how charming someone is during a Q&A. They made a great documentary? That should be the question.”

“Seeing it all” doesn’t make the branch decision any easier because the fielder isn’t hiding behind the camera. He’s in the shot, and the film constantly revolves around whether Holmes is authentic, performing for the camera, or a vague mix of both. For a branch that still appreciates a fly-on-the-wall approach, this can be a tough sell.

The smart money sees this as a film to miss on the December 15 movie shortlist. But if it does, such loud clamor could turn into a rallying cry, much like Ben Affleck’s directorial omission for “Argo.” The wider Academy can respond in one place: the Best Picture Bulletin.

The list of predictions in all categories can be found here.

The Governors Awards, which will present honorary Oscars to Glenn Close and Ridley Scott, will take place on Sunday, November 15. Preliminary voting for the 12 Oscar categories will take place December 7-11, with the shortlist announcement to follow on Tuesday, December 15. January 11-15, 2027. Official Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 21, 2027. The 99th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 14, 2027 and will be hosted by Conan O’Brien. The ceremony airs live at 7pm ET on ABC and in more than 200 territories worldwide from the Dolby Theater at Ovation Hollywood.